Dolphins @ Steelers: Wild Card Weekend: Game Day Thread

Drizztbob wrote:

I believe Avery is actually Ayers, correct?

stlrtruck wrote:

Drizztbob wrote:

I believe Avery is actually Ayers, correct?

TWICE  

I'll shall fix it

Ladarius Green was a full participant for the #Steelers in practice today

— Dale Lolley (@dlolleyor) January 4, 2017

Not practicing for the Steelers today were Anthony Chickillo, Robert Golden, Ricardo Mathews and Vince Williams #Steelers

— Dale Lolley (@dlolleyor) January 4, 2017

Atlanta Dan wrote:

Ladarius Green was a full participant for the #Steelers in practice today

— Dale Lolley (@dlolleyor) January 4, 2017

Not practicing for the Steelers today were Anthony Chickillo, Robert Golden, Ricardo Mathews and Vince Williams #Steelers

— Dale Lolley (@dlolleyor) January 4, 2017

Fire Arians wrote:

Is our defense a top 10 defense now? We started off being in the high 20's, and ended the season at #12. That's definitely a marked improvement.

El-Gonzo Jackson wrote:

Fire Arians wrote:

Is our defense a top 10 defense now? We started off being in the high 20's, and ended the season at #12. That's definitely a marked improvement.

Yeah, but you have to look at they got the Browns x 2, the Bills, Luckless Colts and an injury depleted Bengals down the stretch, so those stats were going to get better if it was yardage based.  

If Bob Griffin, Tyrod Taylor and Scott Tolzien are lighting your defense up, then you really have some issues.  I think the Steelers D is middle of the pack, but would be top 1/3 if they had everybody healthy.

Atlanta Dan wrote:

El-Gonzo Jackson wrote:

Fire Arians wrote:

Is our defense a top 10 defense now? We started off being in the high 20's, and ended the season at #12. That's definitely a marked improvement.

Yeah, but you have to look at they got the Browns x 2, the Bills, Luckless Colts and an injury depleted Bengals down the stretch, so those stats were going to get better if it was yardage based.  

If Bob Griffin, Tyrod Taylor and Scott Tolzien are lighting your defense up, then you really have some issues.  I think the Steelers D is middle of the pack, but would be top 1/3 if they had everybody healthy.

With acknowledgement of the cliche there are lies, damned lies and statistics (aka Garbage In, Garbage Out), Football Outsiders attempts to take into account not everyone playing the same opponent for 16 weeks with DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Rankings).  As stated in this excerpt from a lengthy discussion of those analytics:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Steelers finished up with an overall DVOA ranking of 5th, with a weighted DVOA (an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games) ranking of 3rd. With regard to the defense, the DVOA ranking is 11th (a drop from 9th after week 16 before the week 17 siesta against the Browns) and the offense was ranked 8th.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/final-2016-dvoa-ratings

Link to more detailed DVOA offense rankings here

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

And DVOA defense rankings here

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

The Pats**** finished with the #1 DVOA ranking, but that was with an offense ranked 2nd and a defense ranked 16th.  FWIW I think the Pats**** defense, contrary to its ranking of 1st in points allowed, is journeyman quality due to a sketchy pass rush and feasting on such dregs as the Jets - the Steelers may be the only AFC team able to exploit that, but the weakness is there.

IowaSteeler927 wrote:

Ayers is my X Factor for this game. Kid can play, he's shown as much being productive the past two games when he's been given opportunities. He has the speed to take the top off of a defense, he can draw PI penalties as we saw against Baltimore, and he gets open. I think he could be the missing link. Sammie Coates himself said his fingers won't be healed up until the offseason, so I think we should use Ayers. If Miami doesn't respect his speed, Ayers can burn them, and he could open up more opportunities for Brown. If Ayers can step up and be a decent WR2 for us, this offense could get really scary with Brown, Ayers, Rogers, Green, and Bell. Could be the most prolific we've been all season.

Really hoping this Ayers kid continues to produce.

I'm just hoping that Suh doesn't act like an asshat in this game, but my guess is he'll be up to his usual antics. I can tell you, our O-Line is not going to stand for it. One or two of our bigs might have to plant his ass once and get the point across that we're not putting up with dirty play.

Other than that, really just need to shut down Ajayi, and play sound pass defense from a defensive standpoint. Can't let them break off the big runs and gash us the way they did the first time. I think our defense is up to the task this time around.