PFF says Burns & Davis two of the worst picks in entire draft

THE 16 WORST PICKS OF THE 2016 NFL DRAFT

Mike Renner highlights the worst decisions made by teams with picks in the 2016 draft.

by MIKE RENNER

Now that the dust has settled following the 2016 NFL draft, it’s time to look back at which picks stood out — for the wrong reasons. A number of elements can lead to a selection being deemed the “worst” — the value of the player at the time of the selection, how he fits with his team’s scheme, and whether he fills a need. Here are the 16 worst from this past weekend:

1. Roberto Aguayo, K, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over the past two seasons Aguayo was only 64 percent accurate on field-goal attempts from 40-plus yards (14-for-22). That’s not even close to the accuracy of the top kickers in the NFL. We get that the kicking game was a disaster last year for the Bucs, but they passed on a ton of good players to select a guy that we didn’t even have as the top kicker in the class — and even traded up to do it.

2. Christian Hackenberg, QB, New York Jets
Sam Monson already said all we have to say on Hackenberg. He’s not just inaccurate by NFL standards, he was the second-most inaccurate quarterback in college last year. How much is that going to change, no matter how good his coaching is with the Jets?

3. Germain Ifedi, OT, Seattle Seahawks
Philosophically we’ll probably never be fans of Seahawks draft picks on the offensive line. They tend to take physical projects and hope to teach them how to block. Pass-blocking, however, is one of the most technical skills in the NFL, and it helps to at least come from a solid base. Ifedi doesn’t have that at the moment. His hands and feet are terribly out of synch in pass protection, and unsurprisingly Ifedi had just the 76th-best pass blocking efficiency in the country last year. He may be the answer to their offensive line woes, but it will take a few years of coaching to get him to that level.

4. Willie Beavers, OT, Minnesota Vikings
It’s difficult to imagine a tackle who played as poorly as Beavers did in college ever becoming a viable player in the NFL. He was the second-lowest-graded tackle in all of college football last year, and the lowest-graded tackle at the Senior Bowl practices. Beavers has an insanely long way to go to ever be a viable contributor in the league.

5. Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta Falcons
After seeing Gus Bradley and the Jaguars get “their Richard Sherman” in No. 5 overall pick Jalen Ramsey, Dan Quinn obviously wanted “his Kam Chancellor”, as both former Seahawks defensive coordinators look to shape their new teams after their old ones. Unfortunately, there really weren’t any players resembling Chancellor in this draft, and so they reached big-time for the closest thing they could find. Neal is great at making the plays that allow him to move toward the line of scrimmage, but when asked to do anything other than that at Florida, the results were scary. Neal graded out below-average in run defense and pass coverage thanks to 16 missed tackles last season.

6. Artie Burns, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The fact that Pittsburgh had a desperate need for a cornerback doesn’t make this pick any less of a reach. Burns had six interceptions last season, but he’s far more of a project than he is a finished product at this point. The Miami cornerback has issues changing direction on tape and showed almost no feel for zone coverage. On a team that played zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL last year, that’s concerning.

7. Deion Jones, LB, Atlanta Falcons
Linebacker is probably the last position at which we’d want to be drafting a pure athletic project, and that’s what Jones is. It would be one thing if they were trying to teach a guy that could cover how to play run defense, but Jones didn’t even post a positive coverage grade last season with his elite athleticism. And at 222 pounds, you don’t want him taking on blocks any times soon. Jones’ 40 total stops were the 88th-most of any linebacker in college football last year — that’s not good.

8. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
After shoring up the right tackle position in the first round with Jack Conklin, the Titans continued to find personnel that fits the “exotic smashmouth” scheme they are trying to build by picking up the most physically imposing running back in the draft. Unfortunately, Henry doesn’t offer much of anything different than what DeMarco Murray already brings to the table, and they passed up a golden opportunity to shore up their offensive line even further. Henry is great at falling forward on downhill runs, but he’s chopped down easily in space and isn’t a natural receiver out of the backfield. Drafting a backup running back in the second round with a roster full of needs is not something we can get on board with.

9. Jihad Ward, DE, Oakland Raiders
Ward posted average grades in college and then went to the combine and posted below-average athletic testing numbers. At that point we have a hard time seeing the upside from the Raiders’ second-round pick. His 42 percent win rate in the one-on-one pass rushing drills at the Senior Bowl was the third-worst rate of any defensive end there.

10. Sean Davis, DB, Pittsburgh Steelers
He played cornerback at Maryland, but may move to safety for the Steelers. We’re not sure that’s magically going to make him into a better football player, however. He had a minus-6.7 coverage grade that was one of the worst in the class, and allowed 50 of 81 targets to be completed for 721 yards in only 12 games last year. That extrapolates to 961 yards over a 16-game season, which would have been the third-worst total in the NFL last year.

11. Taylor Decker, OT, Detroit Lions
The Lions clearly made offensive line a priority after their dreadful showing in the run game last year. The problem is that Decker flat-out wasn’t anything special in pass protection the previous two seasons. Besides playing in an offense that rarely asks him to take true pass sets and protected their offensive line, Decker still was 79th nationally in pass-blocking efficiency. If he has the frame and athleticism to be a great pass protector in the NFL, then why didn’t he do it in college with top-notch coaching at Ohio State?

12. T.J. Green, DB, Indianapolis Colts
Some evaluators see Green as a cornerback, but we’re not sure his coverage skills are even good enough for safety in the NFL. Green didn’t just grade negatively, he had the seventh-lowest coverage grade in the FBS last year. He gave up 25 catches and 479 yards on 39 targets and didn’t get his hand on a single pass all season. If there is a silver lining, it’s that Green had the 28th-highest grade nationally against the run.

13. Nick Vannett, TE, Seattle Seahawks
Vannett isn’t a bad receiver by any means, but he’s a completely un-dynamic receiving threat who wasn’t very productive in college taken in the third round. Over the past two seasons he’s broken a grand total of two tackles after the catch. He has great size for the position and some potential as a run blocker, but he has limited experience as an in-line blocker and athletically he’ll have a difficult time separating from linebackers.

14. Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
I like Fuller a lot, and believe he went to one of the best situations for him in the league, but taking Fuller over Josh Doctson is mind-boggling. Fuller obviously has elite speed and it’s clear the Texans wanted a deep threat to take pressure off of DeAndre Hopkins. But instead of getting a deep threat only in Fuller, they could have gotten a deep threat who is also an intermediate threat and red-zone threat. Doctson is a far better all-around receiver and caught just as many deep passes (17) as Fuller did last season.

15. Eli Apple, CB, New York Giants
This is another pick where the team didn’t select a bad player — we had a first-round grade on Apple — but they passed up better options in order to get him. The Ohio State cornerback was fourth on our draft board, and from a grading standpoint, he wasn’t close to Vernon Hargreaves or William Jackson III over the past two seasons. It also leaves the Giants with the question of who plays slot cornerback. Apple, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Janoris Jenkins had fewer than 100 snaps among the three of them out of the slot last season.

16. Darron Lee, LB, New York Jets
Almost every year we see a fantastic athlete get drafted highly on the premise that teams can teach him how to play linebacker. Sometimes it works out and other times it doesn’t. This year that’s Darron Lee. We say that the Jets will have to teach him to play linebacker, because he didn’t even really play linebacker last year at Ohio State. 45 percent of his snaps came from the slot, and a good percentage more came in an outside linebacker role. His run reads in the box were not close to an NFL level yet, and at a shade over 230 pounds that may never be his forte. Lee was one of the best blitzers in the class, however, so while we can’t endorse the riskiness of this pick in the first round, we can see the upside potential.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/05/02/draft-the-16-worst-picks-of-the-2016-nfl-draft/

hater gonna hate

Does Renner know that Davis was a safety before last year? And it's not may move to safety. The team has already said he'll be a safety. Anyhow, I don't see Burns as the massive reach he's being made out to be. There were plenty of mocks that had him going in the first round. This guy's entitled to his opinion but I Trust our coaches, scouts, and FO more than him.

mike renner - cool story bro!

mike hawk thinks your opinion is shit

Good pick.....crappy pick......so-so pick......why don't we wait until they start playing before we attempt to make a valid judgment.  

Based on my assumption that the Steelers pay their front office personnel better than the pay scale at PFF, I tend to agree with this observation by Ed B. of the P-G

Why would you put more credence in a sports magazine's opinion on the draft rather than those whose actual job it is to draft? They're all opinions.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2016/05/03/Ed-Bouchette-s-Steelers-chat-5-3-16/stories/201605030129

ImmaculateGreenePolamalu wrote:

Does Renner know that Davis was a safety before last year? And it's not may move to safety. The team has already said he'll be a safety. Anyhow, I don't see Burns as the massive reach he's being made out to be. There were plenty of mocks that had him going in the first round. This guy's entitled to his opinion but I Trust our coaches, scouts, and FO more than him.

Good points.

FrancoLambert wrote:

why don't we wait until they start playing before we attempt to make a valid judgment.  

Spot on. When it comes to new players, I apply a football version of "innocent until proven guilty" ... they're all good picks, until they're not. That's not to say I like and agree with every pick, and there's certainly nothing wrong with speculation (even if it's negative), but I trust people who get paid to make decisions more than people who get paid to analyze decisions.

Atlanta Dan wrote:

Based on my assumption that the Steelers pay their front office personnel better than the pay scale at PFF, I tend to agree with this observation by Ed B. of the P-G

Why would you put more credence in a sports magazine's opinion on the draft rather than those whose actual job it is to draft? They're all opinions.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2016/05/03/Ed-Bouchette-s-Steelers-chat-5-3-16/stories/201605030129

Amen!

I remember many draft pundits said drafting Casey Hampton where the Steelers did was a stretch. That turned out pretty well.

Well there you have it. I'm not even going to bother watching this team any longer...

Guys, I rarely expect rookies to contribute much anyways. Look at last season in Dupree, Golson, Coates, Grant, Jesse James, Walton or Chickillo. All ended up on the roster, with minimal contribution and only Dupree getting significant playing time.

Burns is a reach and very raw, so I don't expect a lot from him right away, but learing and upside. Davis I think has a better shot at some time due to his speed and size, but Golden might get most of the snaps there for the better part of the season. Hargrave I expect to get the most.

Look at it in the way that its going to be a learning season and instead be more interested in the 2nd year players making bigger contributions and take what we can get from the rookies.

Cant wait to the 2017 draft.

liking the picks more.

indy stats but they don't add team defense stats.

Miami and Maryland defenses weren't world beaters.

can't teach speed but the Steelers defensive coaches can teach the rest.

I see Burns as an ike taylor who can catch the int. Davis as a SS so Mitchell can move to his natural position FS.

can't read DC Butlers mind in how the Steelers will mold these young players into. but one thing I see the Steelers want speed they want an over all fast defense with size.

what killed Cowhers defenses was spread them out and pick em apart.

Hey, he's a rookie CB.....it's a slow learning curve most of the time...... if all Burns contributes this year is less reliance on soft coverage and better matchups with situational bump and run coverage I'll be thrilled.

FrancoLambert wrote:

Hey, he's a rookie CB.....it's a slow learning curve most of the time...... if all Burns contributes this year is less reliance on soft coverage and better matchups with situational bump and run coverage I'll be thrilled.

^^^^^^^ this

effyou515 wrote:

I see Burns as an ike taylor who can catch the int. Davis as a SS so Mitchell can move to his natural position FS.

I'd take that. An Ike taylor with good hands would be a Pro Bowler.

Burns is less Ike Taylor with hands, but more Gerod Holliman with 4.46 speed. Again, I'm hoping for something from him in year 2 and not expecting anything from him this year except the kind of rookie hype we haven't seen since Jarvis Jones.

It seems that if the prospect can't contribute immediately, it's a bad pick according to PFF.

The Steelers second and first-round pick's Sean Davis (28) and Artie Burns during rookie mini camp Friday, May 6, 2016 at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex.

http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/10423048-74/virginia-johnson-penn

Steelers rookie safety Davis has shot at earning starting spot this season

By Ed Bouchette / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Get one thing straight about the Steelers’ new rookie at strong safety. He is no Troy Polamalu and will not try to be.

After all, Sean Davis might actually win a starting job in his first season with the Steelers. That is something Polamalu did not do in 2003, when he played in all 16 games but with no starts behind strong safety Mike Logan.

Polamalu hit the NFL hard for another decade, though, putting himself in position as a Hall of Fame candidate four years from now.

“The things he would do, jumping over the offensive line and all that stuff, he was one of the greatest,” Davis marveled as he practiced at Polamalu’s old position at rookie minicamp this past the weekend.

It’s not a style Davis will try to copy. His style is more in line with another former Steelers Pro Bowl strong safety, his secondary coach, Carnell Lake. Both were second-round draft picks by the Steelers and both stand 6 feet 1, although Lake weighed 8 pounds more at 210 in his NFL prime.

Davis would like nothing better than to follow Lake’s 1989 path of winning the starting job at the position in his first game as a rookie.

The Steelers quietly believe he can do it. At the moment, veterans Robert Golden and Shamarko Thomas return at strong safety but Will Allen started there in the 2015 season and he no longer is here.

Read full story: http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2016/05/09/Steelers-rookie-safety-Davis-has-shot-at-earning-starting-spot-this-season/stories/201605090044

Steelers rookie safety Davis catches on quick

By Mark Kaboly

Sean Davis was asked to do plenty in college — safety, cornerback or whatever else presented itself.

In the NFL, that was called Friday, or this case, the first day of Steelers rookie minicamp at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex.

Davis, the Steelers' second-round pick in last week's NFL Draft, got a thorough introduction to what the Steelers expect from him after the organization used their highest pick on a safety since Troy Polamalu in 2003.

They expect everything … and maybe a little more.

“I am doing a lot out there,” Davis said following Saturday's morning session. “But I am embracing it and up for the challenge, and hopefully I can make some things happen.”

Davis played safety, of course, during the three-day minicamp that featured draft picks, undrafted free agents, some first-year players and nearly two dozen tryouts.

He also was on the field in the nickel defense and was asked to cover receivers like a corner. He was in the box in run support and matched up on tight ends from time to time.

READ MORE: http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/10434660-74/davis-steelers-safety

How does PFFs previous reports like this match up? It's one thing to put out calls like this, anyone can do it especially with the Internet the way it is but do they have anything data wise from previous years to show any merit?

In all honesty the draft is a crap shoot just take a look at any teams draft choices the last 5 years and you will find some diamonds in the rough, pure unmitigated busts, and some that are simply good value picks. Over all the Steelers are one of the best in the league at finding value and getting the most out of their picks. Yes there have been some swings and misses but over all if you look at how we keep on competing and making the playoffs year in and year out I don't think you can realistically ask for much more from the organization.

Discussing this years rookies will have to wait for two years to pass before anyone really can call or grade anything about the current draft class to do so otherwise is just down right unfair to the young men who haven't even put on pads yet.

Steelers fans are truly one of the most spoiled fan base, the expectations on the organization reach absurd levels sometimes.

Advanced stats are just a part of the puzzle, whether its grading a player weekly or looking at draft prospects. They sometimes are indicators of what you see on tape and sometimes they don't match.

Sure Burns coverage stats were average and it matches when you look at his tape. He plays in bail technique a lot and is flat footed when in press, so it makes sense that his backpedal and change of direction looks messy.

I think he graded out as a 3rd round pick to me, but many professional evaluators supposedly had him as a 2nd round pick. He's a pick all about upside. Drafting a 2nd round guy on potential in the late 1st round hardly qualifies as the worst pick in the draft.

Film Room: Sean Davis And The Steelers’ Dime Defense

BY ALEX KOZORA MAY 10, 2016

The Pittsburgh Steelers used their dime personnel (2 DL, 3 LBs, 6 DBs) 61 times in last year’s regular season with another 17 instances coming in the playoffs. Almost all of this work came after Week 13. Used mostly in 3rd and long or obvious passing situations, Lawrence Timmons was pulled off the field in favor of Robert Golden.

Now that Golden is the odds-on favorite to start, Davis’ most logical path to Year One playing time will likely come in dime packages. What are some of the roles Davis will be asked to fulfill? Let’s look at the tape with three examples:

to read rest of article:

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/05/film-room-sean-davis-steelers-dime-defense/

Hey 16 busts out of what, 31 picks in the first and 32 in the second? Cool story bro! (Seriously, 25% of the basically the first 2 rounds, are going to be BUSTS or BAD PICKS???)

Hawaii 5-0 wrote:

Film Room: Sean Davis And The Steelers’ Dime Defense

BY ALEX KOZORA MAY 10, 2016

The Pittsburgh Steelers used their dime personnel (2 DL, 3 LBs, 6 DBs) 61 times in last year’s regular season with another 17 instances coming in the playoffs. Almost all of this work came after Week 13. Used mostly in 3rd and long or obvious passing situations, Lawrence Timmons was pulled off the field in favor of Robert Golden.

Now that Golden is the odds-on favorite to start, Davis’ most logical path to Year One playing time will likely come in dime packages. What are some of the roles Davis will be asked to fulfill? Let’s look at the tape with three examples:

to read rest of article:

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/05/film-room-sean-davis-steelers-dime-defense/

Its a nice article and all, but I think if Davis has a good camp, they may rely on him to play the traditional safety spot and have Golden play close to the LOS as the dime backer. Davis likely has better speed and range, while Golden short area quickness in the slot.

Also, the gifs in that article are good examples of some situations, but they are both against either Osweiler or McCarron at QB. One play Osweiler looks right the entire way, so its an easy read for Golden when Osweiler gets to the top of his drop and opens his shoulders to throw. More experienced QB's would move the safety better with their eyes and that is what Davis will be up against.